Abstract
Making decisions as to how to make an investment in modern technologies is taken as the crucial necessities of defensive industries in developing countries and this phenomenon attracted a great deal of significance due to the chronic shortage of funds and also huge expenditure on research and technological developments. Moreover, proposing an effective model of technological forecasting is among the main requirements for any structure of defense system and is also identified as a contributing factor especially in designing interactional structures as well as laying the foundation for strategic choices. Meanwhile, a deficient model could lead into the total failure of defensive policies in achieving the pre-identified goals. building Specifications of an effective model of technological forecasting received a great deal of attention in many industrial centers in defense sector and in an attempt to identify these specifications, policy makers and planners have encountered serious questions including how to propose an effective model for technological forecasting and how to identify its specifications. This study was an attempt to identify the effective factors enhancing the capabilities of technological forecasting in defense sector and is also aimed at proposing a comprehensive model for implementing defensive strategies through selecting and developing appropriate and effective technologies. The study was also conducted through library study including analyzing the national policies in defense sectors, exploiting the potential of studies conducted to identify an effective model and also investigating the experienced expert’s consultation and elite interview. Then, some specifications of an effective model for technological forecasting were emerged as a result of library study and expert consultation. Thereupon, in a bid to identify probable result of selecting and applying technological forecasting model, probability analysis was also run in this study. At the final stage of investigation, the effects of the effective components building an effective model of technological forecasting were identified through running probability analysis.