MILITARY MANAGEMENT QUARTERLY

MILITARY MANAGEMENT QUARTERLY

Possible Scenarios for Russia-Ukraine War in the Horizon of 2028

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
Khalil Koulivand 1
Ali sattarikhah 2
1 Department of Defense Futures Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Army Command and Staff University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Assistant Prof. Faculty member of Shahid Sattari University of Aviation Sciences and Technology, Tehran, Iran.
10.22034/iamu.2023.1989705.2841
Abstract
NATO's territorial expansion to Eastern Europe led to Russia's attack on Ukraine in 2022, which resulted in destructive effects on the nations of the two countries and their governments, and somehow overshadowed the whole of Europe and large parts of the world. This study aims to draw the possible scenarios for the Russia -Ukraine war in the horizon of 2028. In this applied- exploratory research, scenario writing method was used with a quantitative approach. 17 people with at least 5 years of experience in strategic jobs were selected from among professors of armed forces universities and military commanders through purposeful sampling method as statistical population. Data collected by conducting scientific and specialized library studies, using brainstorming methods and interviewing experts in the form of expert meetings. To draw the scenarios, the scenario analysis method, based on the seven steps of scenario writing with a quantitative approach, was used. By obtaining experts' opinion and quantitative analysis, four possible and believable scenarios were drawn: "long war (World War III)" (catastrophic believable) with strong effect; "diplomatic solution" (optimistic believable) with medium effect; " European war" (probably pessimistic) with strong effect, and "Putin's overthrow and disintegration of Russia" (probably pessimistic) with a very strong effect.
Keywords
Russia-Ukraine War
Scenario Development
Key Factors
Driving Forces
Uncertainty

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